Analysts and traders mapped key BTC levels around the 200‑week SMA at $68,300 and the 200‑week EMA at $58,400. Some say a daily close above $71,000 could revive upside, while sustained weakness risks tests of $65,000, $60,000 and possibly $52,500; a CME gap at $80,000–$84,000 remains a longer‑term upside magnet.

Bitcoin has failed to close above $70,500 for 12 straight days, signaling a firm resistance as sell pressure builds. Between Feb 2 and Feb 15, whales increased their share of deposits to Binance, while average spot order size holds near 915 BTC and exchange reserves rose by about 12,000 BTC, keeping downside risks elevated.

On February 17, 2026, veteran trader Peter Brandt publicly challenged a viral claim that Bitcoin is developing a massive multi‑year inverse head and shoulders formation. He argued that, while Bitcoin's price could still rise, the widely shared "6‑year" bullish pattern does not meet classical charting criteria and reflects weak technical analysis by some influencers.

Filings from Tuesday show that Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments together held more than $1 billion of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT at the end of last year. Mubadala reported 12,702,323 IBIT shares worth about $631 million, while Al Warda held 8,218,712 shares valued at $408 million.

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone has projected that Bitcoin could eventually slide to $10,000, linking this scenario to a potential peak in U.S. equities and an approaching recessionary phase. After rebounding from $65,300 on Feb. 12 to $70,800 on Feb. 15, Bitcoin was trading at $68,241 and 2.3% lower week-on-week, while McGlone argued the long-running "buy the dip" mindset since 2008 may be fading as the broader "crypto bubble" unwinds.

On February 17, 2026, Adam Back reiterated that Bitcoin's consensus mechanism should not be interpreted as a democratic system, despite the "one-CPU-one-vote" wording in the 2008 whitepaper. His stance has resurfaced amid debate over BIP-110 and its User-Activated Soft Fork design, which highlights the primacy of validating nodes over miner hashpower in enforcing protocol rules. Back also warned that contentious soft forks without broad alignment could fragment the network and weaken Bitcoin's role as a monetary system.

According to the analysis, Bitcoin's larger trend remains bearish, with price rebounding from the $60K–$62K demand zone but still below the 100- and 200-day moving averages. On lower timeframes, resistance at $73K–$76K and the broken $75.3K level cap upside. On-chain, LTH-SOPR briefly fell to 0.88 while the monthly average stands at 1.09, signaling early stress rather than full capitulation.

During the current Bitcoin correction, on-chain metrics show a sharp increase in whale-dominated BTC inflows to Binance, while derivatives open interest has been retreating across major exchanges. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost highlights a jump in Binance’s whale inflow ratio from 0.4 to 0.62 between Feb. 2 and Feb. 15 and notes that open interest has fallen almost every month since the cycle top, with BTC trading around $67,823 at press time. These shifts suggest a broader de-risking phase spanning both spot and futures markets, as large holders and leveraged traders reduce exposure or are forced out by volatility.