Technical Analysis

Crypto analyst Plan C argues that Bitcoin’s surge to $126,000 last year did not mark the cycle peak because the broader business cycle has not yet moved above the 50 level. Drawing on ISM PMI readings around 47.9 and historical patterns where BTC tops aligned with business cycle levels between 55 and 65, he suggests further upside is possible even as the price struggles around $90,000. On-chain data firms add that Bitcoin must reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $99,100 to confirm a sustainable recovery, while large investors are reportedly not aggressively buying the dip.

On January 7, spot XRP ETFs recorded $40.80 million in net outflows, breaking their longest daily inflow streak. Despite Wednesday's setback, weekly net inflows totaled $38.07 million, with positive days on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. XRP rallied nearly 30% after January 2, hit $2.41 on Tuesday, and hovers near $2.10, with supports at $2.00 and $1.90.

At the start of 2026, GMT sharply reversed its prior downtrend, jumping 40% in a week and climbing to $0.02260 with a 30% intraday move. The token broke out of a multi-week consolidation range, with RSI in overbought territory, CMF turning positive, and 24‑hour volume soaring over 1020% to $326.49 million. Derivatives data show over $1.55 million in shorts liquidated versus $355k in longs and open interest up more than 245% to $55.08 million, supporting expectations that GMT could test resistance near $0.02600 and potentially target $0.0300 to $0.03600 if momentum holds.

Ripple's XRP is trading near $2.10 with about $3.86 billion in daily volume as analysts track a rare 5-day MACD Golden Cross and key support around $2. The token has risen more than 10% over the past week and roughly 25% this month, while some projections point to potential upside toward $8 by the end of 2026.

Over the past year, large Bitcoin holders have reduced their balances by about 220,000 BTC while the network hashrate growth has slowed as prices stay below miners' $95k-$96k breakeven range. At the same time, Fidelity data shows Bitcoin's 1-year realized volatility has dropped to an all-time low of 42%, with the spot price still above the realized cost basis of long-term whales at $39.6k and miner whales at $58.6k. However, newer whales with a realized price near $99k may choose to sell on a rebound, posing a potential headwind for bulls despite the historically bullish implications of volatility lows.

Injective's native token INJ is trading at $5.12562644 with a market cap of $512,413,670.02 and a circulating supply of 99,970,935.41. Projections for 2026 place INJ between $3.80 and $15.40, while longer-term estimates for 2030 suggest a possible range from about $29 to $74 under strong DeFi adoption and sustained token burns. The forecast path from 2026 to 2030 assumes expanding derivatives activity, rising on-chain volume, and the continued impact of Injective's deflationary buyback-and-burn model.

In the first days of 2026, Bitcoin climbed back toward the top of its weekly range, approaching $94,800 while major altcoins also advanced. Price has traded above the 20-day moving average, with liquidation clusters forming between $89,000 and $87,000 and near $95,000 resistance. On Jan. 5, a futures buy surge of nearly $1.1 billion and about $100 million in short liquidations drove intraday volatility, leaving Bitcoin in a range shaped by leveraged positioning around key levels.

On Friday, Solana (SOL) fell nearly 4% after a second attempt this week to clear resistance near $144, while it continued to trade within a $120–$145 range. Market observer Crypto Batman sees scope for a pullback toward $128–$130 and November lows, while King Arthur flags a reclaim of $143–$152 toward $171.55. As of writing, SOL is $134.9, down 2.3% on the day.

Bitcoin has been trading sideways since late November around the $90,000–$91,000 zone after failing to hold above its October 2025 peak. Analyst Axel Adler notes that the current drawdown from the October high is about −27%, with a maximum pullback near −33%, far milder than earlier cycles that saw declines of −75% to −92%. CVDD model readings show BTC still trading roughly 2x above its long‑term on‑chain fair value near $46,600, suggesting the market has not yet entered a classic capitulation phase.

A crypto whale deposited $8.09M and set buy orders for SOL between $133.88 and $135 on 9 January. At press time, SOL traded at $140, up 2.48% over 24 hours, with volume rising 25% to $5.05B. A daily close above $146 could enable a 15% push toward $168, while failure may invite a reversal.