CryptoQuant analysts report that Bitcoin demand growth has weakened since October 2025, as ETF holdings fell by about 24,000 BTC and the price dropped under its 365-day moving average near $98,172. They argue these shifts, alongside the lowest funding rates since December 2023, point to a developing bear market, even as some market observers still anticipate higher BTC prices in 2026 amid potential interest rate cuts.

In early October 2025, Bitcoin reached a record $126,223 before a sharp Oct. 10 deleveraging wiped out about $20 billion in leveraged positions and drove a 30% price drop. Since then, exchange volumes and market depth have fallen, with data showing a roughly 30% slide in aggregated 2% depth from 2025 highs and more than $5 billion redeemed from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. With Binance's 1% order book depth shrinking from over $600 million in October to under $400 million, Bitcoin is now trading below $90,000 in a structurally thinner market. At 12:14 pm UTC on Dec. 20, 2025, Bitcoin was priced at $88,279.08, with a market cap of $1.76 trillion.

Bitcoin advocate and market analyst Matthew Kratter argues that BTC’s monetary traits make it a superior long‑term store of value to gold. He cautions holders against selling Bitcoin to buy gold even if the metal rises above $4,000 per ounce, and, according to TradingView, 2025 charts show a sharp divergence between BTC and gold.

Following a broad crypto market crash in early October, Bitcoin has continued to decline, breaking several support levels and trading around $88,260 with little daily movement. On-chain analyst Maartunn reports that the Coinbase Premium Gap has fallen to -$57, indicating that US-based traders are selling more aggressively than offshore markets. Historically, extended negative readings have sometimes preceded market bottoms, but a deeper decline without new demand could keep Bitcoin under pressure unless the premium turns back toward neutral or positive territory.

CryptoQuant data shows addresses labeled as new Bitcoin whales now represent almost 50% of Bitcoin’s realized cap, a level that seldom topped 22% before 2025. Analysts add that short‑term holder supply grew by roughly 100,000 BTC in 30 days, while exchange flows indicate around 37% of BTC sent to Binance came from 1,000–10,000 BTC wallets.

On December 20, Bitcoin hovered near $88,222 after a 0.25% rise over the past 24 hours. According to CoinMarketCap, weekend momentum leans bullish, while the hourly range spans $87,791 to $88,522. A sustained break above $90,000 is seen as necessary for upside, with low volume hinting at muted volatility into month‑end.

On 20 December 2025, CryptoQuant warned Bitcoin may have shifted into a bear phase driven by fading demand rather than panic selling. Its on-chain metrics highlight weaker U.S. spot ETF inflows, slower growth among 100–1,000 BTC wallets, and softer perpetual funding, with $70,000 eyed near term and $56,000 (realized price) a later target if demand fails to recover.

Recent Bitcoin ETF red days look alarming, but the data shows limited withdrawals relative to assets while derivatives exposure declines. Outflows are around 2.5% of BTC-denominated AUM, roughly $4.5 billion, and CME futures open interest is near $10.94 billion, down from about $16 billion in early November. The pattern suggests structured trades are being unwound rather than a broad investor exit.