Crypto analyst Plan C argues that Bitcoin’s surge to $126,000 last year did not mark the cycle peak because the broader business cycle has not yet moved above the 50 level. Drawing on ISM PMI readings around 47.9 and historical patterns where BTC tops aligned with business cycle levels between 55 and 65, he suggests further upside is possible even as the price struggles around $90,000. On-chain data firms add that Bitcoin must reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $99,100 to confirm a sustainable recovery, while large investors are reportedly not aggressively buying the dip.

Over the past year, large Bitcoin holders have reduced their balances by about 220,000 BTC while the network hashrate growth has slowed as prices stay below miners' $95k-$96k breakeven range. At the same time, Fidelity data shows Bitcoin's 1-year realized volatility has dropped to an all-time low of 42%, with the spot price still above the realized cost basis of long-term whales at $39.6k and miner whales at $58.6k. However, newer whales with a realized price near $99k may choose to sell on a rebound, posing a potential headwind for bulls despite the historically bullish implications of volatility lows.

In March 2025, the U.S. established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to hold seized BTC, but no federal market buying has taken place yet. Bitcoin ended 2025 down -6.3%, even as regulations such as the GENIUS Act and growing institutional trust reinforced its "digital gold" narrative. With 2026 beginning on a bullish macro note and gold having rallied 65% in 2025 to above $4.5k, traders are now watching whether the U.S. government will finally start purchasing Bitcoin for this reserve.

VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel projects that Bitcoin could be valued near $2.9 million per coin by 2050 in the firm's long-term base-case scenario. The outlook assumes BTC is adopted for 5% to 10% of global trade settlement and reaches a 2.5% share of central bank reserve assets, alongside a 15% annualized return from 2026 to 2050, while alternative bear and bull cases point to much lower or significantly higher prices.

In the first days of 2026, Bitcoin climbed back toward the top of its weekly range, approaching $94,800 while major altcoins also advanced. Price has traded above the 20-day moving average, with liquidation clusters forming between $89,000 and $87,000 and near $95,000 resistance. On Jan. 5, a futures buy surge of nearly $1.1 billion and about $100 million in short liquidations drove intraday volatility, leaving Bitcoin in a range shaped by leveraged positioning around key levels.

Bitcoin has been trading sideways since late November around the $90,000–$91,000 zone after failing to hold above its October 2025 peak. Analyst Axel Adler notes that the current drawdown from the October high is about −27%, with a maximum pullback near −33%, far milder than earlier cycles that saw declines of −75% to −92%. CVDD model readings show BTC still trading roughly 2x above its long‑term on‑chain fair value near $46,600, suggesting the market has not yet entered a classic capitulation phase.

As January nears its end, Bitcoin is trading above $85k while 30-day open interest sits at its lowest level since 2022, indicating a market that has shifted away from excessive leverage. At the same time, U.S. job openings have fallen by 885k over the past 12 months and markets see only a 13% chance of an imminent rate cut, keeping broader sentiment cautious. If this combination of subdued positioning and macro uncertainty persists, a gradual move toward the $100k level by the first week of February remains within reach.

Bitcoin's price recently slipped under $90,000 before recovering to about $91,390, and analysts have highlighted several critical levels that could shape its short-term path. They point to supports around $89,200, $87,500 and $87,200, warning that a break could open the way to about $69,230, while upside scenarios involve reclaiming the $94,000–$95,000 band and potentially extending toward $102,000–$103,000 or even $135,000.