On-chain data indicates the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has fallen sharply into bearish territory, reaching levels last seen at the 2022 market bottom after the FTX collapse. The gauge, derived from the P&L Index and its 365-day moving average and incorporating MVRV, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR, suggests the market is approaching an extreme bear phase that has often coincided with cycle lows. Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, about 4% lower over the past week, as this indicator continues to trend deeper below zero.

On 17 February 2026 at 07:55, Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warned that the crypto drawdown could foreshadow a recession. He outlined a base case of the S&P 500 moving toward 5,600 and Bitcoin near $56,000, with an outside risk of BTC revisiting the $10,000 area amid stretched equity valuations and low 180‑day volatility.

On-chain data indicates that 9.31 million BTC, or 46% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, is currently at a net unrealized loss. Analyst Maartunn argues that this large overhang of underwater coins, concentrated around the $80,000–$95,000 and $105,000–$120,000 ranges, may need to be absorbed by stronger holders before a durable price bottom can form. Bitcoin is presently moving sideways after rebounding from the $60,000 area and is trading near $68,600.

Bitcoin slipped to $67,500 support before bouncing, reclaiming $68,800 and the 100‑hour simple moving average. According to BTC/USD hourly chart analysis using Kraken data, a descending channel caps advances near $69,550, with resistance at $69,500 and $70,500 ahead. Failure to clear those hurdles could invite dips toward $68,000, $67,400 and $67,000.

Bitcoin’s sharp drop toward $60,000 and subsequent rebound acted as a stress test that highlighted contrasting trader behavior on Coinbase and Binance. On Coinbase, Brian Armstrong described retail users steadily accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum, while on-chain data showed a mostly negative Coinbase Premium Index that pointed to weaker US spot aggression. By contrast, Binance saw heavy short-term holder inflows and mid-sized entity selling, with around 8,700 BTC per day sent to the exchange at the height of volatility and roughly 7,000 BTC reportedly sold at market over two days.

Bitcoin has fallen nearly half since its October record and remains below $70,000. Brian Armstrong said Coinbase data shows retail users continued buying dips, with February balances equal to or above December, while market commentator Mippo warned of a potential "full-on crypto winter" comparable to 2022 or 2019.

Bitcoin's latest price drop has coincided with a sharp rise in bearish bets, as Santiment's on-chain data shows aggregated funding rates sliding to notably negative levels. This extreme short positioning, last seen in August 2024 before a major multi-month rebound, indicates that a large share of derivatives traders are positioned for further downside. With Bitcoin trading around $68,740 and funding below -0.01%, any move above key resistance zones such as $75,000 could trigger a short squeeze, though a rapid recovery is not guaranteed.

Crypto investment firm Paradigm has released a research note arguing that Bitcoin mining is wrongly grouped with AI data centers as a constant strain on power grids. The report claims miners function as flexible electricity demand that responds to prices and grid stress, and estimates Bitcoin mining at about 0.23% of global energy use and 0.08% of worldwide carbon emissions.