After surging to an all-time high above $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 30% and trades well below $90,000. On December 19, 2025, analyst Merlijn The Trader, citing Raoul Pal, said this is a liquidity-driven "coil" rather than a crash. Pseudonymous analyst Wise Crypto floated a $600,000 target for 2026, contingent on macro shifts.

On December 19, 2025, a solo miner using NiceHash secured Bitcoin block #928,351 with less than $100 of rented hashpower, earning a 3.152 BTC reward valued at roughly $271,000. Recent on-chain data highlight several rare solo-mining block wins, even as JPMorgan reports four consecutive months of declining Bitcoin mining profitability amid a rising global hash rate.

Concerns about future quantum computing threats are pressuring Bitcoin's price and slowing some investment flows, as developers and investors diverge sharply on the risk. Adam Back and other cryptographers argue current quantum machines are far from breaking Bitcoin's protections, while figures like Jameson Lopp and Nic Carter highlight worst-case scenarios and capital diversification. Industry voices are calling for early planning around quantum-resistant cryptography and improved wallet practices ahead of any potential breakthrough.

On December 19, 2025, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin's market cycle has shifted toward bearish conditions as demand growth fell below trend since early October 2025. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs moved from accumulation to distribution in Q4 2025, with net holdings down about 24,000 BTC, while derivatives funding rates hit their lowest level since December 2023.

Fidelity's director of global macro Jurrien Timmer argues that Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle likely peaked at $125,000 on Oct. 6 and expects a downside phase into 2026, with key support between $65,000 and $75,000. Other analysts, including Delphi Digital's Tom Shaughnessy, foresee fresh all-time highs in 2026 driven by fundamental growth and expanding regulated investment products, even as social sentiment and smart money positioning turn short-term bearish.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley argues that the current Bitcoin drawdown, including a roughly 25% drop from its $126,000 all-time high, fits a recurring crypto market pattern. He points to Bitcoin's 12% decline in Q1 2025 followed by rebounds in Q2 and Q3, and expects a broader recovery in Q1 2026 as total crypto market capitalization has fallen from about $4.20 trillion to $2.97 trillion. Other analysts such as Tom Lee and Julien Bittel also highlight oversold signals and historical precedents for a rebound, though some place the timeline closer to mid-2026.

Bitcoin does not store encrypted secrets on-chain, so a quantum computer would target signature forgery on revealed public keys rather than "decrypt" the ledger. The near‑term levers are public‑key exposure and wallet behavior, while migration to quantum‑resistant spending paths is a protocol and UX challenge rather than an immediate crisis.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in around 30 years, while indicating real rates would remain deeply negative. Bitcoin briefly slipped below $86,000 after the announcement but rebounded to trade above $87,000–$88,000 as analysts debated how Japan’s tightening, diverging from anticipated Fed cuts in early 2026, could shape near-term crypto volatility and price targets up to $200,000.