India’s oil import dependence rises to 90% by 2025–26, leaving energy risks intact despite any US-Iran détente

India’s reliance on crude imports is set to rise from 84% in 2014–15 to 90% in 2025–26, while domestic crude output falls from 36 million tonnes to 26 million tonnes over the same period. Natural-gas imports have also climbed, taking their share in domestic consumption to over 50%. To ease inflation, the government has cut special additional excise duty on fuels—an annual fiscal hit of Rs 1 trillion—and set up measures such as an Economic Stabilisation Fund, risking a wider deficit of about 5.3% of GDP. The article argues that if global oil prices retreat, the government should quickly reverse the fuel-tax cuts, a move that would curb downstream price pass-through and dampen refiners’ buying appetite, creating a marginal drag on crude and gas demand.