India’s RBI holds repo rate at 5.25%, lifts FY27 inflation forecast to 5.1% on $95-per-barrel oil assumption

India’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% but raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.1% from 4.6%, based on an assumption of $95 per barrel average crude prices alongside geopolitical and potential El Niño risks. The RBI said core inflation remained contained, while flagging high oil prices as a key upside risk to inflation. The stance strengthens expectations that energy costs could keep inflation pressures persistent, offering fundamental support for crude.