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Euronews

Wars and heatwaves seen lifting bread and pasta costs as food prices forecast to rise 11.8% in 2026

AI Market Summary
Oxford Economics expects a renewed global food inflation pulse, driven by heatwave-related European crop losses and war-linked input shocks (diesel, natural gas, fertiliser) after Strait of Hormuz disruption and continued Black Sea export risks. Coceral's lower EU/UK grain harvest estimate and Germany's projected 7% output drop tighten cereals supply. The setup raises near-term sensitivity in grain-linked markets and food input costs.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOWHEAT2USD/USDT+0.96%
AI Insight · NCCOWHEAT2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Oxford Economics forecasts global food prices will rise 11.8% in 2026, with grains, fruit and vegetables, and dairy expected to be hit hardest. After Europe’s heatwave, cereals trade group Coceral cut its combined EU27 and UK grain harvest forecast to 286.6 million tonnes. Germany’s Farmers’ Association has warned the country’s grain output is expected to fall 7% to 41.9 million tonnes after drought and heatwaves.
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