US PCE inflation held at 3.4% in August as Iran war pushed energy prices higher
August PCE inflation rose 0.3% m/m and held at 3.4% y/y, signaling persistent underlying price pressures despite expectations for a larger y/y print. Energy-driven upside tied to the Iran war highlights renewed commodity pass-through risk. Sticky inflation complicates the Fed's path to easier policy, typically tightening financial conditions and supporting USD resilience while pressuring rate-sensitive risk assets in the near term.
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US inflation remained sticky in August, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rising 0.3% month over month and holding at 3.4% year over year. The monthly pickup was driven mainly by higher fuel and other energy prices linked to the war in Iran. Economists had expected a 0.4% monthly increase and a 3.7% annual rate.