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Fitch flags tougher US credit backdrop for H2 2026 as inflation and higher rates squeeze households

Fitch Ratings shifted its 2026 US macro outlook to “deteriorating,” cutting its GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 2.2%. The agency said it no longer expects any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, after previously anticipating two 25bps cuts. Fitch cited the adverse impact of an oil price shock, partly offset by AI-driven investment and energy demand. It also upgraded North American Midstream Energy, LNG Infrastructure and Global Oil and Gas to “improving” on stronger demand and higher-for-longer oil prices.
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