North America Q2 cocoa grind jumps 7.7%, lifting New York and London futures more than 3%
AI Market Summary
North American Q2 cocoa grindings surged 7.7% y/y, sharply beating expectations and triggering short-covering that lifted ICE cocoa futures >3%. While Europe's grindings fell, strong Asia demand and Barry Callebaut's sales rebound improve the demand narrative. On the supply side, West African flooding disrupts logistics and raises disease risk, with El Niño dryness concerns and early 2026/27 crop surveys implying lower output, tightening forward balances.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT+1.80%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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North American Q2 cocoa grindings rose 7.7% year on year to 109,659 MT, far above expectations of a 1% decline, helping push ICE New York and London cocoa futures up more than 3% in a single session. In West Africa, heavy rains in key producing countries disrupted transport and raised disease risks, tightening supply. Weather concerns linked to El Niño and early surveys pointing to an 18% drop in the 2026/27 crop added to the supportive backdrop. StoneX has sharply cut its forecast for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus.
