U.S. core CPI rises 0.3% in August, strengthening case for Fed rate hike
U.S. core CPI surprised to the upside, reinforcing the view that disinflation has stalled. Fed funds futures are now pricing a near-certain rate hike next week and increased odds of another move this year, tightening financial conditions. Higher energy prices and services inflation add to persistence risks. The repricing should support the dollar and pressure duration assets and risk markets in the near term.
AI Insight · NCSIDXY2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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U.S. core inflation rose more than expected, indicating the disinflation process stalled. After the data, federal funds futures nearly fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate hike next week and suggested a high likelihood of a second increase before year-end. The report said persistent pressures from the Iran war, tariff policy and the data-centre buildout left inflation with little meaningful progress toward the Fed’s target.