US gasoline prices ease after Strait of Hormuz reopens, but a return to $3 a gallon seen taking until late 2026
AI Market Summary
An interim US-Iran peace agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz has eased immediate supply-risk premia, pressuring WTI lower. However, US gasoline remains elevated due to low inventories, strong refinery restocking demand, and seasonal consumption, with futures still well above prewar levels. The divergence highlights that refined-product tightness can persist even as crude normalizes, keeping energy volatility and downstream margins in focus.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCO1OILWTI2USD/USDT-0.60%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILWTI2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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US gasoline prices have started to fall after the US and Iran reached an interim peace agreement that reopened the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears over crude supply and pulling WTI lower. But gasoline inventories remain low and refiners’ restocking needs are keeping fuel costs elevated. Gasoline futures are still more than 80 cents a gallon above prewar levels and the national average pump price is holding around $4.06 a gallon, leaving experts doubtful of a quick return to $3 gasoline. Some analysts say a move back toward prewar prices may not come until late 2026.
