Ghana sees 2026/27 cocoa output at 650,000 MT, supporting futures prices
AI Market Summary
Ghana's Cocoa Board field survey points to a 13% y/y drop in 2026/27 output, while early Ivory Coast assessments indicate weaker pod development and an 18% lower crop estimate, tightening forward supply expectations. Forecasts for a shrinking global surplus and El Niño weather risks add support. Offsetting factors include higher Ivory Coast port arrivals and rising ICE inventories, while Q2 demand signals were mixed across regions.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT+2.48%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimates the country’s 2026/27 cocoa crop at 650,000 MT, down 13% year on year, based on a recent field survey. Early assessments for the season starting in September put the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop at 1.8 MMT, down 18%. Ivory Coast port arrivals are up 20% so far this season, while global demand in Q2 was mixed. Expectations of tighter supply helped lift New York and London cocoa futures slightly.
