SPCX fell over 2% despite NASA selecting SpaceX's Falcon 9 for the StarBurst mission, a long-dated (no earlier than 2028) contract that supports backlog but is unlikely to shift near-term fundamentals. The more immediate catalyst is the Nasdaq-100 rebalance: pro forma data suggest a weight increase from ~1.28% to ~2.82%, potentially driving sizable passive rebalancing flows and elevated volatility around the effective date.
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SPCX shares fell more than 2% even after NASA said on September 17 that SpaceX will launch the StarBurst spacecraft on a Falcon 9 rocket. The market is also focused on an upcoming Nasdaq-100 weight rebalance that could lift SpaceX’s weighting from about 1.28% to roughly 2.82%. Estimates cited by commentator Sawyer Merritt suggest the change could trigger $15.5 billion to $22 billion in passive-fund buying.