S&P 500 Q2 2026 EPS surges 51% as Goldman says profits are running above trend
AI Market Summary
S&P 500 Q2 2026 EPS growth accelerated sharply, but Goldman attributes much of the upside to temporary drivers: an AI capex surge, unusually high semiconductor margins, and large private investment gains booked by mega-cap tech. While forward valuation appears closer to long-run averages, a normalization in chip margins or a fade in "other income" could pressure aggregate earnings growth, increasing sensitivity to profit-quality and margin assumptions.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCSISP5002USD/USDT-0.09%
AI Insight · NCSISP5002USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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S&P 500 companies posted a 51% year-over-year jump in earnings per share in Q2 2026, lifting growth over the past four quarters to 26%. Major technology firms including Amazon and Meta are expected to spend about $800 billion on capital expenditures this year, up 94% from 2025. Memory-chip makers are seeing gross margins near 80%, and Goldman Sachs estimates S&P 500 earnings could fall by about 10% if overall chip gross margins drop from roughly 70% to the 15-year average of 55%. Large technology companies also generated more than $150 billion in private-investment gains during the quarter, contributing roughly 12% of S&P 500 EPS.
