Finder survey: nearly half of economists see two RBA hikes before Christmas, cash rate tipped at 4.85%
AI Market Summary
A Finder survey shows 90% of economists expect the RBA to hike 25bp to 4.6%, with nearly half anticipating a second hike before year-end to 4.85%, while markets also price two hikes by early 2027. Higher policy and mortgage rates tighten financial conditions, raise recession risk, and pressure rate-sensitive sectors. The repricing of the Australian rates path is the key near-term driver for AUD and local risk assets.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCFXAUD2USD/USDT+0.03%
AI Insight · NCFXAUD2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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A Finder survey shows 90% of polled economists and finance experts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% at its upcoming meeting. Nearly half also forecast a second hike before year-end, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest level since the peak of the 2008 global financial crisis. Markets are also pricing in two increases by early next year, with a 90% probability of a move to 4.6% on Tuesday.
