Allium: U.S. users led Polymarket political betting despite 2022 geoblock after CFTC settlement
AI Market Summary
Allium's research indicates Polymarket's U.S. geoblock has not reduced participation, instead pushing activity offshore via VPNs, while regulatory actions broaden across Spain, Canada, and parts of Ukraine. The findings heighten compliance and enforcement risk for crypto-based prediction markets, increasing the probability of access restrictions, licensing challenges, and liquidity disruption. This is a near-term negative for sector sentiment, particularly around onchain gambling and prediction-market activity.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
BTC/USDT+0.45%
AI Insight · BTC/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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New research by blockchain analytics firm Allium says U.S. users remained the largest single-country group in Polymarket’s political prediction markets by trading volume and wallet count, even after the platform introduced geoblocking following a 2022 settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The study says users continued to access the site via offshore routes such as VPNs, shifting activity rather than reducing demand. Polymarket is also facing regulatory restrictions in places including Spain, Canada and parts of Ukraine. The report says the persistence of offshore activity has added pressure on the platform as regulators scrutinize licensing and compliance across multiple jurisdictions.
