Cooling oil prices ease pressure on OMCs, but US-Iran deal uncertainty keeps risks elevated

Progress in negotiations over a US-Iran nuclear deal has emerged as a key swing factor for oil markets, with a potential agreement seen restoring supply via the Strait of Hormuz. Global inventories are still 1 billion barrels below pre-war levels, while forecasts put Brent at $70 a barrel either in the next few months or by endFY27. Lower oil and gas prices are expected to support OMCs, Petronet LNG and city gas distributors, while ONGC and Oil India face weaker realizations and earnings pressure.