Oil outlook diverges as US-Iran talks pause: Dicker sees $135 spike, IEA forecasts 2027 surplus

US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland were paused after Iran protested Israel’s military operations in Lebanon and objected to Trump’s remarks about Hormuz, prompting Brent crude to rise more than 2% in early trading. Expert Dicker warned that if no firm deal is reached and inventories keep shrinking—down 143 million barrels in May alone—prices could jump from around $75 to as high as $135 within a month. The International Energy Agency, however, projects a large supply surplus by 2027, a scenario it ties to easing conflict and a recovery in output and exports. The split underscores a near-term risk narrative versus a longer-term outlook.