Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declines to submit rate forecast as policy rate holds at 3.50%-3.75%

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to submit an interest-rate forecast in the central bank’s latest quarterly projections, breaking with a long-standing practice, while the federal funds rate was held at 3.50% to 3.75%. The new dot plot included 18 submissions from 19 policymakers, with nearly half expecting a rate hike this year and six anticipating more than one quarter-point increase by year-end. The shift underscores growing concern that higher fuel prices could feed more broadly into inflation, even as the Iran-U.S. deal eased geopolitical tensions but damage to energy facilities may slow the recovery of oil exports. The development is seen as a signal of a policy pivot that strengthens near-term hike expectations and adds demand-side pressure to commodities such as crude oil.