Middle East crude exports climb to 12.8 million bpd in September, led by Saudi Arabia
AI Market Summary
Preliminary Kpler data show Middle East crude exports rebounding to ~12.8 mbpd, led by Saudi flows shifting east and reaching ~5.4 mbpd. The supply normalization is price-negative at the margin, despite persistent security risks and weaker official tanker traffic through Hormuz. War-related disruptions and "dark mode" shipping keep a geopolitical risk premium in play, raising short-term volatility in global crude benchmarks.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDT+0.98%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Preliminary Kpler data show Middle East crude exports rebounded to 12.8 million barrels a day in September, driven mainly by Saudi Arabia. Saudi exports averaged 5.4 million bpd this month, including 3.6 million bpd from the Ras Tanura port, in line with the country’s 2025 daily average, according to Kpler. Total exports briefly reached 13.2 million bpd on one day last Wednesday, but traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains weak and overall flows are still below the roughly 17 million bpd average seen before the war.
