High gold prices and 15% import duty push Indian buyers toward off-the-books cash deals
AI Market Summary
India's sharp increase in gold and silver import duties to 15% plus 3% GST is pushing price-sensitive demand into off-invoice cash transactions, expanding the grey market ahead of the wedding season. This blunts the intended demand-cooling effect while complicating official import and tax data. As gold remains up ~28% YoY, the policy mix keeps gold-linked trade-deficit and FX pressures in focus.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOGOLD2USD/USDT+0.03%
AI Insight · NCCOGOLD2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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India’s hike in gold and silver import duties to 15%, along with a 3% goods and services tax for retail buyers, is prompting more consumers to buy bullion and jewellery in cash without receipts to cut costs by as much as 6%. Traders and jewellers can avoid taxes and share part of the savings with customers, helping expand the grey market. Gold prices have eased from an earlier record but remain almost 28% higher than a year ago. Gold, India’s second-largest import after oil, continues to strain the trade deficit.
