Pakistan braces for 25% Rabi water shortfall as wheat supply outlook faces renewed risk
AI Market Summary
Pakistan enters the Rabi season facing an estimated ~25% irrigation water shortfall as reservoir carryover drops to a four-year low, raising downside risk to wheat output after last season's production already undershot consumption and required imports. The tighter supply outlook can lift sensitivity in regional grain balances and import demand, while interprovincial allocation frictions and India's Indus Waters Treaty dispute add policy uncertainty.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
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▲ Bullish
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Pakistan is entering the key Rabi planting season with expected water availability of about 21.00-22.00 million acre-feet, roughly 25% below normal requirements, as reservoir levels fall to a four-year low. Wheat, the main Rabi crop, is at the center of the risk as the previous season’s output already fell short of domestic consumption needs. The renewed supply squeeze is adding fresh pressure to the country’s food security and wheat supply outlook.
