India risks silver supply squeeze in festive season as import licensing curbs bite, premium near 10%
AI Market Summary
India's licensing requirements for most silver import HS codes have sharply curtailed fresh supply, forcing reliance on inventories, recycling, and ETF selling, while spot premiums near 10% signal tightness. With festive and wedding demand typically rising from August–September and industrial demand seen as relatively inelastic, continued curbs raise the risk of a domestic supply squeeze that can spill into broader silver market sentiment.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCSKSLV2USD/USDT-0.07%
AI Insight · NCSKSLV2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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India’s silver market has seen fresh imports nearly stall after the government imposed licensing requirements on most HS codes, leaving buyers reliant on existing stocks and recycled metal. Spot premiums have climbed to around 10%. With demand expected to pick up in August–September for the festive and wedding season, the market could face a supply-demand imbalance if restrictions are not lifted. Metals Focus forecasts silver at $80–85 an ounce over the next 12 months, with upside potential to $100.
