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Interim US-Iran deal could reopen Strait of Hormuz on Friday, risking a 93 million-barrel oil supply wave

A temporary US-Iran agreement could see the Strait of Hormuz reopen on Friday, potentially bringing large volumes of crude back onto global markets. Kpler data indicate up to 93 million barrels of non-Iranian crude and about 72 million barrels of Iranian crude could move quickly into supply. Weak Asian refining demand adds to the downside risk, with more than 1.8 million barrels per day of Chinese capacity expected to be offline in July due to maintenance. Middle East crude benchmarks have already slipped into discounts, and traders expect the region’s contango structure to deepen.
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