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Strong West Africa crop conditions push cocoa futures down more than 4% as Ghana harvest hits 750,000 MT

AI Market Summary
Cocoa futures fell to one-week lows as exceptional growing conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana boosted flowering ahead of the main harvest, reinforcing near-term supply expectations. Ghana's 2025/26 harvest is up 25.6% y/y and ICE inventories reached a two-year high, amplifying downside pressure. While El Niño and weaker early 2026/27 crop signals may tighten future balances, current supply data dominates near-term pricing.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT-5.09%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Exceptional growing conditions across key West African regions are boosting cocoa supply and weighing on prices. Ghana has harvested 750,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, up 25.6% y/y, while Ivory Coast shipments this marketing year have reached 2.11 MMT, up 20%. Nigeria’s June cocoa exports rose 30% y/y to 18,922 MT. With expectations of ample supply, New York and London cocoa futures are both down more than 4%.
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