Europe scrambles to refill gas storage as LNG cargoes shift to Asia, putting 90% target out of reach
AI Market Summary
Europe's gas storage is well below seasonal norms and modelling suggests the EU's 90% pre-winter target is out of reach, increasing vulnerability to cold-weather demand spikes. Supply risk is amplified by disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and by US LNG cargoes being bid away to higher-priced Asian markets. The combination raises the probability of tighter near-term gas balances and greater price volatility into winter.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCO7241NATGAS2USD/USDT+2.03%
AI Insight · NCCO7241NATGAS2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Europe’s gas stocks are unusually low, with storage only 5% full at the end of July, 12 percentage points below last year and 16 percentage points under the five-year average. The EU has loosened its refill requirements to as low as 75%, but a tightening supply outlook tied to the war against Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is complicating efforts. At the same time, more U.S. LNG cargoes are flowing to Asia, leaving the bloc’s 90% storage target effectively unattainable, according to Montel.
