El Niño and renewed Middle East conflict could keep Philippine inflation above target, central bank says
AI Market Summary
The Philippine central bank warns inflation could remain above target longer due to El Niño-driven food risks and renewed Middle East conflict keeping oil prices elevated. With headline inflation at 4.8% and core at 4.4%, policymakers signal a bias toward further tightening, alongside peso weakness and wage hikes. The news reinforces oil-supply and energy-cost sensitivity in importing economies, supporting crude-linked inflation risk in the near term.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDT-0.35%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas warned that inflation pressures could intensify as the El Niño season approaches and conflict in the Middle East flares up again. June inflation averaged 4.8%, well above the BSP’s 2%-4% tolerance range, while core inflation rose to 4.4%, its highest in nearly three years. The BSP has raised rates by a total of 50 basis points to 4.75%, and markets expect another 25-basis-point increase within the year. Rising oil prices, the peso weakening past 61 per dollar, minimum-wage increases and food-price risks were flagged as persistent upside pressures.
