El Niño supply worries push ICE sugar futures open interest to record 2.3 million contracts
AI Market Summary
ICE data show sugar futures open interest hit a record 2.3 million contracts as participants increased hedging amid a projected strong El Niño through early 2027. Record fund inflows (US$2.5bn) and positioning shifts indicate rising concern over supply risks, with weather threats spanning India's monsoon and Brazil's harvest. The setup implies tighter near-term balance uncertainty and elevated volatility across the sugar curve.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOSUGAR2USD/USDT-2.39%
AI Insight · NCCOSUGAR2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Open interest in raw and refined sugar futures hit 2.3 million contracts on Friday, topping the previous high set in February 2010, ICE data show. An ICE executive said shifting supply-demand balances and a forecast for a strong El Niño through January 2027 have added uncertainty to supply expectations, prompting hedging across the curve. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center put the probability of a very strong El Niño at 90%, while funds recorded net inflows of a record US$2.5 billion into raw sugar contracts over the same period.
