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Telegraph India

El Niño risks and Black Sea trade disruptions lift global food prices to near four-year high in September

AI Market Summary
FAO data show global food commodity prices at a near four-year high, driven by El Niño-related supply risks and Black Sea/Hormuz logistics disruptions. Sugar and cereals led gains, with vegetable oils also firmer, highlighting broad-based inflationary pressure and potential pass-through to consumer prices, especially for import-dependent economies. The unchanged 2026 production outlook contrasts with reduced trade forecasts, underscoring supply-chain constraints.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOGOLD2USD/USDT+1.10%
AI Insight · NCCOGOLD2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index rose to a four-year high as El Niño weather concerns and disruptions to Black Sea trade tightened crop markets. The agency’s sugar price index climbed 6.1% in September from August for a third straight monthly gain, reaching an 18-month high, while wheat futures hit a three-year peak early last month. Vegetable oil prices also increased, with palm oil supported by demand and Southeast Asia production risks tied to El Niño. FAO left its 2026 global cereal production forecast unchanged at 2.979 billion metric tons.
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