El Niño and ethanol blending drive India’s sugar output forecast down to 27.9 million tons, squeezing exports

El Niño-linked weather is expected to pull India’s monsoon rains to an 11-year low, delaying cane planting and pushing some farmers toward less water-intensive crops such as soybeans. At the same time, faster implementation of mandatory ethanol blending is leading mills to prioritize cane for ethanol production. Output for the current season is now estimated at 27.9 million tons versus annual consumption of about 28.5 million tons, with end-season stocks seen at roughly 3.5 million tons, the lowest in more than three decades. India has halted sugar exports until September 30 and is likely to effectively limit shipments through season-by-season approvals.