Brazil’s delayed 2026/27 coffee harvest lifts arabica and robusta futures
AI Market Summary
Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest is running behind last year and the five-year average, with Minas Gerais rainfall at just ~20% of normal, tightening near-term supply expectations. ICE arabica inventories falling to a 2.25-year low adds to the supportive backdrop, while El Niño risks raise uncertainty for next season's flowering and yields. Higher ICE margins and reduced liquidity are amplifying short-term volatility.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDT-0.47%
AI Insight · NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is running behind schedule, with completion at 64% as of July 15 versus a five-year average of 70%. Minas Gerais, the country’s largest coffee-growing region, saw just 0.2 mm of rain in the week through July 19, or 20% of the historical average. Tightening ICE arabica inventories, which fell to a 2.25-year low of 329,870 bags, has added support to prices. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño pattern that emerged last month is likely to be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, adding to concerns about next year’s crop.
