Australia’s big four banks tip RBA cash rate rise to 4.60% on September 29, with ANZ calling for 4.85% by November
AI Market Summary
Australia's four major banks now converge on an imminent RBA hike to 4.60%, with ANZ flagging a potential second move to 4.85% by November, driven by oil-led inflation risks from Middle East tensions and stronger domestic data. A higher-for-longer rates profile tightens financial conditions, pressures housing-sensitive demand, and supports AUD via wider rate differentials, while raising recession-risk tail concerns for local risk assets.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCFXAUD2USD/USDT-0.26%
AI Insight · NCFXAUD2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Australia’s four major banks now forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on September 29. ANZ also expects back-to-back increases in September and November, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, returning it to levels seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. The banks point to Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices, an inflation risk the RBA is seen as prioritising, adding to the urgency for another hike.
