Coffee prices find support as Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest reaches 90% by Aug. 12
AI Market Summary
Coffee markets are balancing supply and disruption signals. Brazil's 2026/27 harvest is progressing slower than last year, supporting prices, while below-normal Minas Gerais rainfall could accelerate picking, tempering bullishness. Colombia's earthquake has intermittently constrained exports despite partial port reopening. Inventories diverge: ICE arabica stocks fell to a 2.75-year low (supportive) while robusta stocks rose (bearish). Strong Vietnam exports and USDA's higher global output forecast cap upside.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDT+0.36%
AI Insight · NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, trailing 97% a year earlier and the five-year average of 94%. Arabica harvesting also lagged, with 86% complete versus 95% last year, while Cooxupe cooperative members had harvested 74.6% compared with 80.4% previously. In Minas Gerais, rainfall totaled 5.8 mm last week, equal to 92% of the historical average. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports rose 17.5% year over year to 1.58 MMT.
