Lavazza chair warns coffee prices may stay elevated for at least two years as El Niño disrupts supply
AI Market Summary
Lavazza warns El Niño-driven heat and drought risk during Brazil's arabica flowering, alongside already low global inventories, could keep coffee supply tight until at least two strong harvests rebuild stocks. Arabica futures' sharp surge and continued volatility underscore renewed weather-risk premium and investor positioning. Near-term market focus shifts from record-crop expectations to execution risks in Brazil's harvest and broader supply fragility.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDT+0.17%
AI Insight · NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Luigi Lavazza SpA Chairman Giuseppe Lavazza said confirmed El Niño conditions are bringing hotter, drier weather during Brazil’s arabica flowering season, putting yields under pressure. He added that global inventories remain low and would require at least two strong harvests to rebuild stability, according to the Italian roaster. New York arabica futures logged their biggest intraday jump in 26 years, and prices are up about 30% from before El Niño was declared. Markets are now expecting coffee prices to be unlikely to fall over the next two years.
