ICE cocoa futures jump 5.41% as weaker dollar lifts New York September contract to 1.5-week high
AI Market Summary
Cocoa futures jumped as a weaker DXY improved non-USD affordability, lifting NY and London contracts despite sterling strength limiting UK gains. Near-term supply looks ample (Ivory Coast port arrivals +20% y/y; Ghana 2025/26 output +25.6%), and ICE inventories are at a 2-year high, but forward balances are tightening: early 2026/27 Ivory Coast and Ghana estimates point to lower production with El Niño risks, shrinking projected global surplus. Q2 demand was mixed across regions.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT+5.38%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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ICE cocoa futures surged on Monday, with the New York September contract up 5.41% to a 1.5-week high as a weaker U.S. dollar offered support. On the supply side, Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals in the current marketing year rose 20% year on year to 2.11 MMT, while Ghana’s crop this season increased 25.6% to 750,000 MT. Early assessments for next season, however, put output at 1.8 MMT, down 18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26. Demand indicators were mixed in the second quarter.
