Cocoa futures slide to 1-week lows as West African growing conditions improve
AI Market Summary
Cocoa futures sold off to one-week lows as improved West African weather boosted flowering ahead of the main harvest, while Ghana output (+25.6% y/y) and Ivory Coast port arrivals (+20% y/y) signaled looser near-term supply. ICE inventories also reached a two-year high, reinforcing bearish spot dynamics. Offsetting factors include weaker early 2026/27 crop surveys and El Niño-related downside risks, keeping longer-horizon supply uncertainty elevated.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT-5.09%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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ICE New York September cocoa fell 278 points (-4.78%) on Tuesday, while ICE London July cocoa dropped 179 points (-4.21%), with both contracts hitting 1-week lows. Ghana’s cocoa board said 750,000 MT had been harvested for the season ending at the end of August, up 25.6% from 597,000 MT a year earlier. Ivory Coast port data showed cocoa arrivals since October 1 have reached 2.11 MMT, up 20% year on year. Early assessments of next season point to poor pod development, with output for the season starting in September estimated at 1.8 MMT, down 18% from about 2.2 MMT expected for the current season.
