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ICE cocoa futures rise as dollar weakens; New York September up +2.30%

AI Market Summary
Cocoa futures rose as USD weakness (DXY at a multi-month low) supported commodity pricing, though a stronger GBP capped London gains. Fundamentals are mixed: higher Ivory Coast port arrivals and ICE inventory at a two-year high weigh on prices, while early 2026/27 crop surveys and El Niño risk point to lower West African output and a smaller global surplus. Q2 grindings were divergent across regions.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT+0.40%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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ICE cocoa futures in New York and London rose on Tuesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and a British pound that climbed to a 3.25-month high. Ivory Coast port arrivals in the current marketing year are up +20% year on year, while Ghana’s current-season harvest is up +25.6%. Early assessments for the new season point to an 18% drop in the Ivory Coast crop estimate. Cocoa demand in Q2 showed mixed signals across regions.
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