Cocoa futures top $6,500 a tonne as 2026/27 supply concerns intensify
AI Market Summary
Cocoa futures surged above 6,500 as the market repriced 2026/27 supply risk: StoneX slashed its global surplus forecast to ~25k tonnes from 149k on rising El Niño risk and deteriorating Ivory Coast/Ghana crop outlooks. Early surveys point to Ivory Coast output down ~18% and Ghana potentially falling sharply versus 2025/26. A crowded fund net-short appears to be amplifying the rally via short covering.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT-3.59%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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StoneX cut its forecast for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to about 25,000 tonnes from 149,000 tonnes, citing rising El Niño risks and worsening crop prospects in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early surveys suggest Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop is preliminarily estimated at around 1.8 million tonnes, down 18% from the prior season. Cocoa futures have surged over the past week, pushing above $6,500 per tonne to the highest level since July 9.
