Australia’s June-quarter GDP rises 0.4%, markets lift September RBA hike odds to about 70%
AI Market Summary
Australia's Q2 GDP beat expectations, lifting market-implied odds of an RBA hike in September to ~70% and fully pricing at least one hike by November, with the projected terminal rate rising. The data reinforces a higher-for-longer rates narrative despite weak productivity and a softening labour/housing backdrop. Near term, this tightens Australian financial conditions and supports AUD via wider rate differentials and a more hawkish policy path.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCFXAUD2JPY/USDT-0.51%
AI Insight · NCFXAUD2JPY/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Australia’s economy expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, beating most economists’ expectations and reinforcing market bets on a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia rate increase. Traders lifted the implied probability of a September hike to about 70% and fully priced in at least one increase by November, according to Bloomberg analysis of futures pricing. Market expectations for the cash-rate peak rose to 4.8%.
