Australia's 2025-26 final budget deficit came in ~A$6bn smaller than forecast, driven by modest spending cuts and stronger tax receipts, but economists warn fiscal pressures and shock risks persist. Markets still expect the RBA to hike 25bp to 4.60%, suggesting the fiscal improvement is unlikely to alter near-term tightening expectations. The mix supports AUD via fundamentals, while higher rates tighten domestic financial conditions.
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Australia’s final 2025-26 budget outcome shows the deficit narrowed by about A$6 billion compared with the May projection. The improvement reflects A$1.4 billion less in government spending and A$4.6 billion more in tax receipts. Markets broadly expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday to 4.60%, a 15-year high.