September arabica jumps 2.23% as 7.4-magnitude Colombia quake raises supply concerns
AI Market Summary
Arabica futures jumped on supply-risk headlines after a 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit Colombia's key coffee regions, adding to support from Brazil's slower harvest pace and low ICE arabica inventories. Offsetting this, USDA expects a record 2026/27 global crop and higher ending stocks, while robusta faces pressure from rising ICE inventories and strong Vietnam exports. Near-term volatility is likely to stay elevated across coffee benchmarks.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDT-0.88%
AI Insight · NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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September arabica coffee futures rose 2.23% on Monday on concerns that an earthquake in Colombia could disrupt supplies, while September ICE robusta futures slipped 0.13%. Brazil’s coffee harvest remains behind last year’s pace, with Cooxupe members 67.3% complete as of July 31 versus 74.2% a year earlier, and the national harvest at 64% as of July 15 versus 77% last year and a five-year average of 70%. Rainfall in Minas Gerais totaled 5.8 mm in the week ended August 9, or 92% of the historical average. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year over year, while robusta production is seen falling 0.7%.
