July arabica slips 0.97% as dollar hits 13-month high

July arabica coffee futures fell 0.97% as the dollar index climbed to a 13-month high, prompting long liquidation. Price support came from shifting Brazil rainfall forecasts, ICE arabica inventories falling to a 2.25-year low, and NOAA estimating a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year. Pressure also came from surging Vietnam exports and the USDA’s expectation of a bumper Brazil crop. In the near term, prices are being driven by the dollar, while weather and inventories dominate the medium- to long-term picture.