U.S. prediction markets top $44 billion in 2025 volume as regulators clash over what counts as gambling
AI Market Summary
The article highlights escalating US scrutiny over whether prediction markets and certain crypto speculation resemble gambling, noting growing legal conflict between the CFTC and state gaming regulators. While no token is singled out, memecoins, short-dated crypto derivatives, and stablecoin-settled event contracts are framed as high-risk and weakly supervised, raising regulatory overhang. Near-term market impact centers on compliance uncertainty for US-facing platforms and potential tighter constraints on retail participation.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
BTC/USDT+1.22%
AI Insight · BTC/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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A new analysis argues that U.S. regulation draws a fractured line between gambling and financial speculation, spotlighting prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi and their conflict with state sports-betting rules. Notional trading volume across major prediction-market platforms exceeded $44 billion in 2025, with Polymarket and Kalshi together accounting for roughly $38 billion to $39 billion, according to Gambling Insider. The CFTC and state regulators are now battling in court over whether event contracts should be treated as gambling, while several states have launched enforcement actions. DraftKings’ exit from the American Gaming Association and its launch of a CFTC-regulated product underscore a broader shift toward the federal derivatives framework.
