Investors brace for a potential “Super El Niño” before 2027, with crop and metals supply risks in focus

The US Climate Prediction Center puts the probability of a very strong El Niño—often dubbed a “Super El Niño”—before 2027 at 63%. The pattern could bring drought to Indonesia and India and heavy rains in parts of South America, weighing on palm oil, corn and wheat output while disrupting copper mining logistics in Chile and Peru. Hydropower-dependent aluminum smelting in China could also face electricity constraints, with UBS and Saxo Bank flagging supply risks for wheat, copper and aluminum.