Technical Analysis

Bitcoin fell 5.8% last week from the $82k area, and on May 17 it broke below $77k, triggering $630 million in liquidations with roughly 90% coming from long positions. While Coinbase Premium stayed negative and BTC ETFs turned to net outflows, on-chain data showed long-term holders at their highest levels since 2025, with LTH supply reaching 15.26 million BTC. The mixed signals frame the move as a potential deleveraging reset rather than a broader breakdown, even as some traders watch the $60k zone.

Binance Research said in a May 17 thread that several Bitcoin on-chain indicators suggest available supply is tightening and near-term sell pressure is easing. The firm pointed to exchange balances falling to a six-year low after roughly 500,000 BTC left trading venues since the COVID-era peak, alongside signals showing long-term holders remain dominant.

Ethereum dropped under $2,150 as market uncertainty and selling pressure weighed on price, with ETH later trading near $2,110. On-chain tracking pointed to a major supply shift after more than 225,000 ETH was deposited to Binance in one day, marking the exchange's biggest net inflow in the past six months. The report outlines profit-taking, defensive positioning, or derivatives collateral as possible drivers, each potentially increasing near-term volatility.

Bitcoin briefly dipped toward $76,000 on May 18 before trading near $77,000 around 5:36 p.m., a move that pushed the social sentiment ratio into bearish territory. Santiment said negative BTC commentary exceeded bullish posts for the first time since April 21, with a ratio reading of 0.94 bullish comments per bearish comment. The firm argues that elevated retail fear has historically aligned with improved odds of a short-term rebound.

Bitcoin failed to hold gains after being rejected above $82,000 on Thursday, then revisited $76,000 on Monday, contributing to $400 million in bullish-position liquidations over four days. Despite a 7% drop, the article points to three potential supports for a rebound above $80,000: Strategy's $2 billion BTC purchase, rising US bond yields that may favor scarce assets, and the possibility of a US-Iran agreement that could lift risk appetite.

XRP is showing its tightest Bollinger Band squeeze on the 3-day chart in more than a year, a setup that can precede sharp volatility. An analyst says a confirmed 3-day close above $1.50 could put $1.80 in play, while a close below $1.29 may increase the risk of a pullback toward $1.00.

Bitcoin slid Sunday night after US President Donald Trump posted a warning to Iran on Truth Social, and by early Monday it was trading around $76,780, down about 1.55% over 24 hours. The move pushed BTC below key hourly EMAs (20-hour $77,580; 50-hour $78,120; 100-hour $78,767; 200-hour $79,350) while MACD readings stayed negative (line -359; signal -243; histogram -116).

Bitcoin started the third week of May near $76.8k after giving back the prior week's $80k breakout and breaking a short-term rising trendline. The pullback has brought price back into the middle of a larger daily ascending channel, with $75k flagged as the key support area. Analysts outline $80k as the level to reclaim on a bounce, while a breakdown below $75k could shift focus toward $72k and the 100-day moving average.

Bitcoin has pulled back toward $76,275, but its weekly setup still keeps a move toward $91,091 technically possible if support holds. The chart remains above the Bollinger Bands middle line (20 SMA) at $74,986, while on-chain data highlights 7.8 million BTC sitting at a loss near $76.7K as a potential resistance zone.

Bitcoin fell under $77,000 on Monday as market risk-off sentiment intensified, with on-chain indicators showing mounting capitulation pressure. Data shows 6–12 month holders have a realized cost basis near $110,851, and exchange inflows have risen since May 14 alongside short-term holders selling at a loss. The setup suggests a fast V-shaped rebound is less likely until the excess selling supply is absorbed and sentiment steadies.