Macro trader plur daddy outlined a 2026 Bitcoin framework focused on US liquidity normalization. Following the Dec FOMC’s $40bn/mo reserve management purchases and fiscal changes starting Jan 1, he sees conditions likely moving from tight toward neutral. He cited $38bn already purchased, a $100–200bn reserve deficit, and $12–15bn/mo deficit expansion.

In its 2026 outlook, VanEck says Bitcoin has trailed the Nasdaq 100 by roughly 50% year to date in 2025, a gap it argues could precede outperformance next year. David Schassler also pointed to gold's surge past $4,500 an ounce and projected $5,000 in 2026, while Matthew Sigel expects a consolidation phase.

Bitcoin has fallen over 35% from its roughly $126,200 peak two months ago, and multiple indicators signal waning sell pressure. VanEck analysts cite a 4% hashrate decline into Dec. 15, while Miad Kasravi's NFCI timing has often preceded rallies by 4–6 weeks; momentum gauges have turned up from oversold.

Bitcoin traded near $87,000 as a record options expiry totaling $23.7 billion is set for Friday. The event spans roughly 300k BTC option contracts and 446k IBIT option contracts, and some market participants point to an initial upside target around $100,000 once the expiry clears.

VanEck views miner capitulation as a potential bottom signal for Bitcoin: Hashrate down 4%, but recovery and costs remain crucial.

Bitcoin is holding near $87,000 while participation and liquidity metrics cool. On Nov. 24, seven‑day inflows reached $21 billion on Coinbase and $15.3 billion on Binance; by Dec. 21 they slid to $7.8 billion and $10.3 billion. Price remains confined between $85,000 and $90,000, with defined liquidation zones above and below.

On December 24, 2025, macro investor Dan Tapiero said Bitcoin's bull market remains mid-cycle and that BTC could align with this year's strength in precious metals. He outlined targets of BTC $180,000, gold $5,500 per ounce and silver $85 per ounce, and highlighted forthcoming listings such as a Kraken IPO and broader US market support.

On December 24, 2025, Bitcoin underperformed other major assets as on-chain activity and buying participation continued to cool. BlackRock's constructive long-term stance coexists with investor concerns that measured institutional flows and thinning active addresses are restraining breakouts despite strength in equities and precious metals.