Vanguard and Fidelity Expect Stock Returns Below Half of the Past Decade's Pace. Here's the Math for a 66-Year-Old With $2 Million

Vanguard and Fidelity project U.S. equity returns of roughly 4.8% to 6.8% annually over the next decade, well below the S&P 500 pace of the past ten years. The downgrade signals lower expected portfolio growth, potentially pressuring retirement spending assumptions and equity valuations. Near term, the forecast may dampen risk appetite for U.S. stocks, though it is a long-horizon view rather than an immediate market catalyst.