India’s 2026-27 opening sugar stocks seen at 3.5 million tonnes as prices surge
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India’s projected 2026-27 opening sugar stocks falling to ~3.5MT (decade low) and a sharp 2025-26 production decline reinforce a multi-season supply squeeze. Price pressures are framed as weather damage, festive demand, high global prices and hoarding, while earlier export allowances likely worsened balances before a May export ban. Fortnightly allocation and softer ex-mill prices may temper near-term retail inflation but do not remove tightness.
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India’s opening sugar stocks for the 2026-27 season are projected to fall to 3.5 million tonnes, the lowest level in a decade. Sugar output in 2025-26 is estimated to drop 27% year on year to about 28.1 million tonnes, while the average retail price is up 39% year on year and 31% month on month. Even after the government introduced a fortnightly allocation system and factory-gate prices fell 20%, the supply squeeze has persisted as the share diverted to ethanol has eased to about 9%, according to the Department of Consumer Affairs’ price monitoring cell.
